Maoist Center stands to gain 10 seats in first phase due to alliance with UML

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CPN (Maoist Center) has fielded candidates in 16 federal constituencies in the first phase of parliamentary and provincial assembly elections scheduled for November 26 to be held for 37 constituencies in 32 districts

CPN-UML and Maoist Center had agreed a 60:40 ticket sharing while forming the left alliance but the latter has got to field candidates in 43 percent of the constituencies in the first phase. The alliance candidates from Maoist Center stand to benefit even more as the party can win all the 16 seats if the parliamentary candidates were to get most of the votes received by UML candidates for ward chairman in the recent local election.

The party would have won only in six of these constituencies if all the parties were to contest separately in the first phase. It is stronger only in Eastern Rukum, Western Rukum, Gorkha-2, Rolpa, Kalikot and Jumla on the basis of votes received in the local election. But all the Maoist candidates are stronger than Nepali Congress (NC) candidates after the alliance with UML, even if Federal Socialist Forum, RPP and RPP (Democratic) were to support the NC candidates.

The party stands to win in Bhojpur, Solukhumbu, Ramechhap, Sindhupalchowk-1, Nuwakot-1, Baglung-2, Lamjung, Gorkha-1, Jajarkot and Humla where it was behind in the local election. UML was ahead in five of those constituencies—Bhojpur, Solukhumbu, Ramechhap, Sindhupalchowk-1 and Nuwakot-1—in the local election. Similarly, NC was ahead in the other five constituencies where Maoist candidates stand to win.

But UML will not suffer much despite leaving the constituencies with its stronghold to Maoist Center. UML also looks likely to win in five constituencies—Okhaldhunga, Nuwakot-2, Bajura, Darchula and Baglung-1—where NC was ahead in the local election.

NC, which looks set to lose 10 seats due to the left alliance, can gain only one through its alliance with Naya Shakti Nepal, and can win Mustang on its own. Independent candidates have won in local election in Mustang but it will be difficult to predict how the results in the district will pan out. But NC is still ahead on votes received at the ward level in the local election.   

UML was ahead on the basis of local election votes in Rasuwa but NC will be ahead there after the alliance with Naya Shakti.

NC looks likely to win just two constituencies in the first phase if the voters were to remain loyal to the alliance formed by the respective parties they voted for in the local election. UML can lose only Rasuwa out of the 21 constituencies where it has fielded its candidates.

UML would have won 20 seats, NC 11 and UML six—on the basis of the votes received at the ward level—if all the parties were to contest the first phase separately.

UML would have won Sankhuwasabha, Solukhumbu, Bhojpur, Taplejung, Panchthar, Khotang, Sindhupalchowk-1, Sindhupalchowk-2, Myagdi, Parbat, Rasuwa, Nuwakot-1, Dolakha, Ramechhap, Dhading-1, Dhading-2, Baitadi, Bajhang, Mugu and Dolpa.

NC would have won Okhaldhunga, Lamjung, Gorkha-1, Nuwakot-2, Bajura, Darchula, Jajarkot, Baglung-1, Baglung-2, Humla and Mustang

Maoist Center would have won Western Rukum, Gorkha-2, Rolpa, Eastern Rukum, Kalikot and Jumla.

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